Commentary: Philadelphia will never win it all with Joel Embiid

Joel Embiid was listed as "probable" on the Philadelphia 76ers' pregame injury report Sunday, which is to say the sun came up in the East. The one consistent storyline of the Sixers' rebuilding era, dubbed "The Process" some 13 years and five general managers ago, involves the availability of injured players. Those players have regularly included big-name players such as Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz and James Harden, but it might as well be called the Embiid Report, because nobody has been on it as often as him. Embiid played Sunday, in Game 4 of the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. He played remarkably well. He scored 24 points. He missed just one of his 15 shots, and that one was a free throw. The Sixers lost by 30 and were swept out of the postseason, but it wasn't all Embiid's fault. It seldom is — at least, not when he's in uniform. That's the issue. Sometimes he is priceless, but other times he's worthless. His game is as beautiful as a Fabergé egg, but his body is just as fragile. He is undependable, and therefore un-tradeable, which makes any argument that the Sixers might win a title before his contract expires in 2029 untenable. He's a part-time employee. Embiid has played in just 490 possible regular-season games in his career. He has missed 499. He has never played in more than 68 games in an 82-game season. He has broken 60 just four times in the 12 seasons since the Sixers drafted him third overall in 2014. He is the main reason why the NBA instituted a 65-game eligibility minimum for postseason awards. Embiid has been to the playoffs eight times but has played in every playoff game just twice, and those were first-round losses. He has missed time due to his feet and his knees and the orbital bones on each side of his face. Only once, in the summertime COVID bubble sweep in 2020, has injury not factored into Embiid's playoff presence. It's too bad, really. He is a 7-foot-2, 280-pound marvel of power, athleticism, grace and intelligence. He also is more likely to break down than a Jaguar sports car. Which is why, as long as he is a principal player, the Sixers will never win anything of note. The Promise Embiid spent his exit press conference Sunday testifying to the fitness of his left knee, which has plagued him for three seasons and has undergone three surgeries. He says that, despite being humiliated by an under-talented team like the Knicks, this season was a "success," since he and his doctors settled upon a regimen that nullified how much the knee hinders him. Never one for understatement, Embiid shared that he had worried that his career might effectively be over. "I came into the season thinking there was not much left," he said. "I thought I was done." Then, to his delight, he played ... 38 games? "For me, this season was a success," he said. Considering he'd played exactly half as many games last season, well, I guess everything's relative. "If it wasn't for the oblique and some of the other stuff I had, it could have been different," Embiid said. This is the issue. There was the strained oblique, which cost him 14 games in March. A strained oblique that other players just don't suffer. Besides, it wasn't just the oblique. In February, Embiid had missed five games with soreness in his right knee. There's not much Embiid could do about, say, the Bell's palsy that afflicted him two years ago, and there's even less he could do about the appendectomy that cost him the last three games of this regular season and the first three games in the first round against Boston. As for most of the other issues, Embiid could be fitter, and he could play smarter. He declines. Embiid returned for Game 4 of the first-round series against the Boston Celtics, helped the Sixers overcome a 3-1 series deficit with 28.0 points per game ... but he soon was hurt again. After a Game 1 loss to the Knicks, incredibly, Embiid reported brand-new ankle and hip injuries. That's right. After 17 days of rest while recovering from the appendectomy, he was hurt again five games later. He missed Game 2 in New York. Embiid claimed Sunday that his weakened core affected the hip issue, which might make a bit of sense, but he also said it affected his ankle, which makes no sense at all. "Everything else is affected. Everything else is out of place," he said. He then tried to lighten the mood. "Maybe I gotta go to church more," Embiid said. "Maybe I'm cursed. I don't know." Pause. "Maybe Philadelphia's cursed." Pause. "That's a joke." It's no joke. Fallout No one is affected more by Embiid's presence or absence than coach Nick Nurse, for whom Embiid has played just 111 of 264 games, including playoffs, in Nurse's three seasons in Philadelphia. That's just 42.1%. This makes Nurse's job twice as hard. Nurse has to plan for games both with and without Embiid, because the coach often doesn't know until just before tip-off if Embiid and his $55 million salary will be available that night. Embiid's inconstancy affects game plans, shoot-around plans, defensive planning and, especially, defensive execution. With his athleticism and his size, Embiid is a phenomenal defensive presence, a shot-altering security blanket who allows perimeter defenders to take more chances. I asked twice Sunday about this particular coaching challenge. Nurse refused to take my bait. "All I can say is, I commend him, and he worked his ass off to get out there and play," Nurse said. When I pressed him with a second question, he wouldn't even look my way as he tossed a mealy word salad. That's OK. Kelly Oubre Jr. arrived with Nurse three years ago, and he's seen Nurse struggle to put together lineups. Last season, most of the best players missed significant time, but in the first and third seasons it mostly was Embiid. "He's been dealt a kind of a weird hand with, you know, the situations of the lineups and, like, the health issues and stuff like that," Oubre said. "But you know, he's always just showed up and tried to figure it out." Future Unless Embiid has unknown bone-density problems, biomechanical issues, or a lingering relic of Paget's disease, the main impediments to his availability lie in his poor conditioning and his reckless style of play. He hasn't been in peak NBA shape for even one game in his career. This is exacerbated by his daredevil exertions. He often sails into the stands after loose balls or finishes sprawled under the basket trying to block a shot in transition. He seems to have balance issues, too, because he winds up on the floor as often a little kid's Cheerios. Also, you have to wonder if his incessant flopping doesn't exact a toll. On Sunday, Embiid was optimistic that, with the left knee issue apparently resolved, his next act will be his best to date. "Understanding what it takes when it comes to my body. ... What I can do to be more available," Embiid said. "Actually being able to work out, which I haven't done in a couple of years." He meant he hasn't been able to work out in a couple of years. It's important to note that, instead of following a more measured recovery from knee surgery during the 2024 season, Embiid chose to play in the Olympics. He then played in just 19 games for the Sixers in the 2024-25 season. Maybe Embiid is right. Maybe he's been tested by God. Maybe or he's been cursed by druids. Maybe he's the victim of Basketball Karma targeted at Philadelphia for the sins of losing on purpose for years. Maybe this summer his legs get strong and he comes to camp at 260 pounds in the fall and he plays 66 games in the regular season and then doesn't miss a minute in the playoffs. It's a pleasant scenario, and one you can't blame him for projecting. It's just not realistic. It assumes that a player in his 14th year, who has missed more than half of his possible games, as a 32-year-old, suddenly will become more durable. More dependable. That's delusional.