Census Data: Immigration declines in 85 of Ohio's 88 counties

A new Census Bureau report shows the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration has triggered a dramatic drop in the number of people coming to Ohio from other countries — a trend the White House is celebrating but some economists warn could hurt the economy. The report, released Thursday, showed international migration declined last year in 85 of Ohio's 88 counties. The remaining three showed no change. In Lorain County, the number of new residents from abroad fell from 507 people in 2024 to 322 in 2025 — a decline of 36 percent. In Medina County, the drop was smaller but still significant, from 248 to 183 — a decline of 26 percent. Ohio overall saw an even steeper drop of nearly 49 percent, from about 55,900 in 2024 to 28,500 last year. Among the state's urban areas, Cincinnati's Hamilton County reported a plunge of 62 percent. In Canton's Stark County, the decline was 67 percent. The Ohio numbers mirror a national trend. Net international migration to the United States peaked at 2.7 million in 2024, then fell by more than half to 1.3 million in 2025. The drop was felt from coast to coast. "Every state, the District of Columbia and 90 percent of the nation's 3,144 counties experienced a decline in net international migration between 2024 and 2025," according to a Census Bureau summary of the data. The bureau projects the decline will continue — and that it could eventually result in more people leaving the United States than arriving. "Currently, the estimates of net international migration are trending toward negative net migration," the bureau's news release states. "If those trends continue, it would be the first time the United States has seen net negative migration in more than 50 years." The Trump administration has made no secret of taking credit for the decline. In response to a CNN report in August previewing the collapse in international migration, the White House put out a press release declaring that Trump was fulfilling "his promise to end the migrant invasion and deport criminal illegal immigrants from our communities." The administration later posted a graphic on social media declaring "Negative Net Migration for the First Time in 50 Years — Promises Made, Promises Kept." Not everyone is cheering. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell, at a March 18 press conference, voiced concern that "a good part of the slowing in the pace of job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force, due to lower immigration and labor force participation." While "it's something we're watching carefully," Powell added, the trend is likely to continue because "you can argue that it's a consequence of deliberate policy, which is really the changes to immigration." Census experts say they expect the decline in international migration to deepen. The bureau's annual estimates run from July to July, which means this year's report covers only the first six months of Donald Trump's presidency. As a result, the full impact of his administration's immigration policies has yet to show up in the numbers. The falloff in international migration is only part of a larger story about how Ohio is growing — and who is being left behind. Since the 2020 Census, the state's population has grown by less than 1 percent, ranking Ohio 38th among the 50 states. But that growth has been deeply uneven. Only 39 of Ohio's 88 counties gained population over the past five years. The remaining 49 shrank. Among those losing residents are five of the state's eight largest urban counties — Cleveland's Cuyahoga, Akron's Summit, Toledo's Lucas, Canton's Stark and Youngstown's Mahoning. Cuyahoga County alone lost nearly 32,000 residents since 2020, dropping to an estimated 1,232,925. Lorain and Medina counties are among the minority of counties that have grown since the 2020 Census. But the data reveal that their growth depends on people from other areas of Ohio and the nation choosing to move here rather than on "natural growth" — resulting from more births than deaths. Lorain County added about 10,200 residents since 2020, reaching a population of 323,219. But the county had 3,076 more deaths than births over that period — meaning the growth came entirely from migration. More than 11,000 new residents arrived from elsewhere in Ohio and the country; another 1,855 came from abroad. Lorain County Community Development Coordinator Dave Greenspan credited his county's continued growth to increased employment opportunities. "We have an expansive economic development effort not only within Lorain County but with the various cities, villages and townships in the county," he said. In Medina County, the story is similar. The county added about 2,550 residents, bringing its population to 185,025, despite having 1,146 more deaths than births. Its gains came from 2,809 domestic migrants and 816 international arrivals. While both counties had enough domestic migrants to grow without relying on international migration, the same cannot be said for Ohio as a whole or for more than a dozen of its counties. The state recorded 45,739 more deaths than births over the five-year period and lost a net 30,482 residents to other states. It was the 176,953 people who moved to Ohio from abroad that tipped the balance, accounting for all of the state's population gain. Of the 39 Ohio counties that showed growth since 2020, 13 did so only because of international migration. Without those newcomers from abroad, they too would have shrunk. Contact David Knox at areanews@medina-gazette.com.