Tips for picking your tournament bracket

As you prepare to chase pool riches by filling out your 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket, there is at least one question you will have to confront: Do you trust Purdue? On paper, coach Matt Painter's Boilermakers should enter the 2024 edition of March Madness as one of the favorites to cut down the nets. Alas, Purdue's recent NCAA Tournament history breeds skepticism. Over the past three NCAA tourneys, Purdue has been eliminated by a 13 seed (2021), a 15 seed (2022) and a 16 seed (last year). The shocking 63-58 Purdue loss to Fairleigh Dickinson in last season's round of 64 was only the second time in NCAA Tournament history that a No. 16 seed upset at No. 1 seed. Of course, one doesn't need to be as immersed in college hoops as Jay Bilas to recall that the only other No. 1 seed to fall to a No. 16 seed — Virginia, which lost to the University of Maryland-Baltimore County in the 2018 round of 64 — came back and won it all the following season. Does Purdue have what it takes for such an epic bounce back? Bear with me, and I'll share my view. Here are 10 tips that could — could — help you fill out a winning bracket: 1. How to use conference tournament results Eventual 2023 NCAA champion Connecticut lost to Marquette in last season's Big East Tournament semifinals. Fact is, since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to at least 64 teams in 1985, only 16 out of 38 subsequent NCAA champs won their conference tourneys. Of the past 10 recognized NCAA tourney title winners, only two — Villanova in 2018 and Kansas in 2022 — won their league tournaments. What the conference tournament results can help you do, however, is figure out who NOT to pick to win it all. Since 1985, no team that failed to win at least one game in its league tourney has gone on to win the NCAA championship. 2. There is a new "upset line" in the NCAA Tournament The famed "5-12" upset line was a bust in 2023 — No. 5 seeds went 4-0 vs. No. 12s. That was not shocking. Over the past five NCAA tourneys, the 6-11 line has yielded substantially more upsets than the 5-12. Since 2018 (remember, there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020), No. 11 seeds are 9-11 vs. No. 6s. Conversely, No. 12s are only 6-14 vs. No. 5s in the same time frame. 3. Little reason to pick against top three seeds The place to look for jaw-dropping surprises in recent NCAA tourneys has been the 2-15 line — a No. 15 seed has ousted a No. 2 in three straight March Madness renewals. Even with that, there's not a great percentage in picking against top three seeds in the round of 64. Over the past five NCAA Tournaments, No. 1 seeds are 18-2 in the round of 64; No. 2s are 17-3; and No. 3s are a robust 19-1. Meanwhile, No. 4s are "only" 14-6. 4. What makes a team vulnerable to an early exit? If you trust the metrics gurus, the characteristics that make teams susceptible to being upset early in a NCAA tourney are: a higher than average turnover rate; poor 3-point shooting percentage; and taking fewer free throws per game than their opponents. 5. No. 1 seeds tend to make the Sweet 16 Last year, only two No. 1 seeds, Alabama and Houston, advanced to the round of 16. That was an unusually low advancement for top seeds. Over the past five NCAA tourneys, 70% of No. 1 seeds (14 of 20) have reached at least the Sweet 16. 6. The "hot" programs Since 2016, four men's hoops programs have won substantially more NCAA Tournament games than anyone else — 1. Gonzaga (22 NCAA tourney wins); 2. Villanova (20); 3. Kansas (19); 3. North Carolina (19). Behind those four, Duke and Michigan are next with 14 NCAA tournament victories since 2016. As you evaluate the "hot" programs for 2024 March Madness, keep in mind that all of those Villanova NCAA tourney wins came under former coach Jay Wright. So there's reason to be wary of the Wildcats — if they make the tournament at all. 7. No. 1 seeds tend to cut down the nets Connecticut winning it all last season as a No. 4 seed was an outlier. A No. 1 seed has won the NCAA Tournament in seven of the past 10 renewals of March Madness, including five of the past six. 8. Picking the national champion Fourteen of the 21 NCAA champs since 2002 have ranked in the top 20 on Selection Sunday in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency in the Pomeroy ratings. Last year on Selection Sunday, there were four such teams — Houston (No. 11 adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 4 adjusted defensive efficiency); Alabama (No. 19, No. 4); UConn (No. 6, No. 18) and Texas (No. 18, No. 11). Of those four teams, Alabama and Houston lost in the Sweet 16; Texas lost in the Elite Eight; and UConn won it all. As of March 7, there were six teams this year in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency in the Pomeroy ratings: Houston (No. 12, No. 1); UConn (No. 3, No. 14); Purdue (No. 2, No. 20); Arizona (No. 6, No. 15); Tennessee (No. 20, No. 3); and Auburn (No. 14, No. 5). Meanwhile, Duke (No. 7, No. 22), Creighton (No. 7, No. 24) and Marquette (No. 22, No. 16) were close to top 20 status in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. 9. Believe in blue When Connecticut, whose school colors are navy blue, gray and white, won it all last year, it continued a long-running trend. Since 2004, every team but two that has won the NCAA championship has had blue among its primary school colors. The exceptions are Baylor (green and gold), which won in 2021, and Louisville (red, black and white), which won in 2013 — but subsequently vacated the national title due to NCAA rules violations. Among this season's six Pomeroy Ratings "dual championship qualifiers," three of them — Arizona (navy blue, cardinal red), Connecticut (navy, grey and white) and Auburn (navy blue, orange) — incorporate blue into their uniform colors. The other three, Houston (red, silver, white), Purdue (old gold and black) and Tennessee (orange and white), eschew the blue. 10. So can you trust Purdue in your bracket? In last season's stunning NCAA tourney loss to FDU, the Boilermakers made only 5 of 26 3-point tries, turned the ball over 16 times and struggled to guard the quicker Knights on the perimeter. This year, Purdue has raised its team 3-point percentage from 32.2% a year ago to 40.5% this season. The Boilermakers are also far more prolific offensively, averaging 84.7 points in 2023-24 after scoring 72.7 last year. It remains worrisome, however, that Purdue turns the ball over (338) more than it forces turnovers (296). So my hunch is you can trust Purdue to get through to the second week of the NCAA Tournament but not to play on the final weekend.